AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 4 · Final

New York Jets at Chicago Bears, final 12–23

NYJNYJNew York Jets12CHICHIChicago Bears23

Pregame first read

CHI passing attack has the stronger league profile.

CHI passing attack #8/32 · NYJ pass defense #31/32 · 195 offense / 158 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
CHI -10.5
Model total
47.5
80% range (CHI margin)
-4.5 to +29.8

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • CHI passing attack#8/32NYJ pass defense#31/32
  • CHI run game#13/32NYJ run defense#19/32
  • NYJ passing attack#15/32CHI pass defense#20/32
  • NYJ run game#28/32CHI run defense#25/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NYJNew York Jets

CHIChicago Bears