AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 5 · Final

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons, final 30–23

BALBALBaltimore Ravens30ATLATLAtlanta Falcons23

Pregame first read

BAL passing attack has the stronger league profile.

BAL passing attack #1/32 · ATL pass defense #10/32 · 131 offense / 224 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BAL -2.5
Model total
49
80% range (ATL margin)
-17.3 to +16.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • ATL passing attack#26/32BAL pass defense#19/32
  • ATL run game#5/32BAL run defense#11/32
  • BAL passing attack#1/32ATL pass defense#10/32
  • BAL run game#7/32ATL run defense#2/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

BALBaltimore Ravens

ATLAtlanta Falcons