2026 Week 5 · Final
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams, final 37–34
Pregame first read
LA passing attack has the stronger league profile.
LA passing attack #10/32 · BUF pass defense #27/32 · 203 offense / 204 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- BUF -1.5
- Model total
- 50
- 80% range (LA margin)
- -16.5 to +17.8
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingMatthew StaffordLA383 pass yds
- RushingJosh AllenBUF121 rush yds
- ReceivingPuka NacuaLA138 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- LA passing attack#10/32BUF pass defense#27/32
- LA run game#9/32BUF run defense#25/32
- BUF passing attack#6/32LA pass defense#9/32
- BUF run game#1/32LA run defense#13/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
BUFBuffalo Bills
- Josh AllenQB · 4 games260pass yds/g
- James CookRB · 4 games105rush yds/g
- Dalton KincaidTE · 4 games67.5rec yds/g
- Keon ColemanWR · 4 games54.3rec yds/g
LALos Angeles Rams
- Matthew StaffordQB · 4 games297pass yds/g
- Kyren WilliamsRB · 4 games73.5rush yds/g
- Puka NacuaWR · 2 games99.5rec yds/g
- Davante AdamsWR · 4 games97.5rec yds/g