2026 Week 5 · Final
Cleveland Browns at New York Jets, final 12–17
Pregame first read
NYJ run defense has the stronger league profile.
CLE run game #23/32 · NYJ run defense #12/32 · 120 offense / 150 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- CLE -5
- Model total
- 42
- 80% range (NYJ margin)
- -20.1 to +14.1
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingGeno SmithNYJ182 pass yds
- RushingBraelon AllenNYJ116 rush yds
- ReceivingGarrett WilsonNYJ104 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NYJ passing attack#12/32CLE pass defense#7/32
- NYJ run game#30/32CLE run defense#30/32
- CLE passing attack#18/32NYJ pass defense#27/32
- CLE run game#23/32NYJ run defense#12/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
CLECleveland Browns
- Deshaun WatsonQB · 4 games214pass yds/g
- Quinshon JudkinsRB · 4 games44.3rush yds/g
- Denzel BostonWR · 4 games71rec yds/g
- Harold Fannin Jr.TE · 4 games38.3rec yds/g
NYJNew York Jets
- Geno SmithQB · 4 games226pass yds/g
- Breece HallRB · 3 games54.3rush yds/g
- Garrett WilsonWR · 4 games67.5rec yds/g
- Adonai MitchellWR · 2 games61.5rec yds/g