2026 Week 5 · Final
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers, final 23–17
Pregame first read
DEN pass defense has the stronger league profile.
LAC passing attack #29/32 · DEN pass defense #6/32 · 169 offense / 172 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- DEN -3.5
- Model total
- 38
- 80% range (LAC margin)
- -18.6 to +15.6
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingBo NixDEN123 pass yds
- RushingJ.K. DobbinsDEN68 rush yds
- ReceivingEvan EngramDEN55 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- LAC passing attack#29/32DEN pass defense#6/32
- LAC run game#28/32DEN run defense#32/32
- DEN passing attack#23/32LAC pass defense#16/32
- DEN run game#17/32LAC run defense#14/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
DENDenver Broncos
- Bo NixQB · 4 games205pass yds/g
- J.K. DobbinsRB · 4 games40.3rush yds/g
- Jaylen WaddleWR · 4 games46.3rec yds/g
- Pat BryantWR · 4 games33.3rec yds/g
LACLos Angeles Chargers
- Justin HerbertQB · 4 games204pass yds/g
- Omarion HamptonRB · 4 games59.5rush yds/g
- Tre HarrisWR · 4 games52.3rec yds/g
- Ladd McConkeyWR · 4 games45.8rec yds/g