AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 5 · Final

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers, final 22–34

INDINDIndianapolis Colts22PITPITPittsburgh Steelers34

Pregame first read

IND run game has the stronger league profile.

IND run game #3/32 · PIT run defense #23/32 · 139 offense / 131 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
PIT -0.5
Model total
46.5
80% range (PIT margin)
-14.6 to +19.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • PIT passing attack#32/32IND pass defense#21/32
  • PIT run game#21/32IND run defense#28/32
  • IND passing attack#25/32PIT pass defense#17/32
  • IND run game#3/32PIT run defense#23/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

INDIndianapolis Colts

PITPittsburgh Steelers