AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 5 · Final

Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots, final 17–45

LVLVLas Vegas Raiders17NENENew England Patriots45

Pregame first read

LV pass defense has the stronger league profile.

NE passing attack #28/32 · LV pass defense #2/32 · 184 offense / 178 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
NE -1.5
Model total
38
80% range (NE margin)
-13.4 to +20.8

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • NE passing attack#28/32LV pass defense#2/32
  • NE run game#9/32LV run defense#7/32
  • LV passing attack#14/32NE pass defense#9/32
  • LV run game#31/32NE run defense#21/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

LVLas Vegas Raiders

NENew England Patriots