AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 6 · Final

Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons, final 31–23

CHICHIChicago Bears31ATLATLAtlanta Falcons23

Pregame first read

ATL run game has the stronger league profile.

ATL run game #6/32 · CHI run defense #24/32 · 161 offense / 107 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
CHI -1
Model total
45
80% range (ATL margin)
-15.7 to +18.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • ATL passing attack#25/32CHI pass defense#19/32
  • ATL run game#6/32CHI run defense#24/32
  • CHI passing attack#17/32ATL pass defense#12/32
  • CHI run game#8/32ATL run defense#14/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

CHIChicago Bears

ATLAtlanta Falcons