AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 6 · Final

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, final 34–31

HOUHOUHouston Texans34JAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars31

Pregame first read

JAX run defense has the stronger league profile.

HOU run game #25/32 · JAX run defense #2/32 · 115 offense / 106 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
JAX -4.5
Model total
44
80% range (JAX margin)
-10.4 to +23.8

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • JAX passing attack#3/32HOU pass defense#16/32
  • JAX run game#9/32HOU run defense#9/32
  • HOU passing attack#13/32JAX pass defense#9/32
  • HOU run game#25/32JAX run defense#2/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

HOUHouston Texans

JAXJacksonville Jaguars