2026 Week 6 · Final
New York Jets at New England Patriots, final 19–26
Pregame first read
NYJ run defense has the stronger league profile.
NE run game #16/32 · NYJ run defense #7/32 · 144 offense / 135 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- NE -6.5
- Model total
- 39
- 80% range (NE margin)
- -8.7 to +25.6
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingGeno SmithNYJ252 pass yds
- RushingBraelon AllenNYJ78 rush yds
- ReceivingOmar Cooper Jr.NYJ103 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NE passing attack#12/32NYJ pass defense#10/32
- NE run game#16/32NYJ run defense#7/32
- NYJ passing attack#15/32NE pass defense#14/32
- NYJ run game#23/32NE run defense#19/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
NYJNew York Jets
- Geno SmithQB · 5 games217pass yds/g
- Breece HallRB · 3 games54.3rush yds/g
- Garrett WilsonWR · 5 games74.8rec yds/g
- Adonai MitchellWR · 2 games61.5rec yds/g
NENew England Patriots
- Drake MayeQB · 5 games246pass yds/g
- Rhamondre StevensonRB · 5 games45.4rush yds/g
- Mack HollinsWR · 4 games52.3rec yds/g
- Romeo DoubsWR · 5 games43.8rec yds/g