2026 Week 6 · Final
Pittsburgh Steelers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, final 26–19
Pregame first read
TB pass defense has the stronger league profile.
PIT passing attack #26/32 · TB pass defense #15/32 · 200 offense / 173 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- TB -0.5
- Model total
- 40.5
- 80% range (TB margin)
- -14.3 to +20.0
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingAaron RodgersPIT253 pass yds
- RushingJaylen WarrenPIT50 rush yds
- ReceivingDK MetcalfPIT93 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- TB passing attack#29/32PIT pass defense#18/32
- TB run game#7/32PIT run defense#18/32
- PIT passing attack#26/32TB pass defense#15/32
- PIT run game#5/32TB run defense#5/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
PITPittsburgh Steelers
- Aaron RodgersQB · 5 games247pass yds/g
- Jaylen WarrenRB · 5 games82rush yds/g
- DK MetcalfWR · 5 games45rec yds/g
- Roman WilsonWR · 5 games37.6rec yds/g
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
- Baker MayfieldQB · 3 games205pass yds/g
- Bucky IrvingRB · 5 games81.2rush yds/g
- Emeka EgbukaWR · 5 games38.4rec yds/g
- Cade OttonTE · 5 games36.4rec yds/g