2026 Week 7 · Final
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets, final 28–25
Pregame first read
MIA run defense has the stronger league profile.
NYJ run game #28/32 · MIA run defense #12/32 · 116 offense / 141 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- NYJ -2.5
- Model total
- 42.5
- 80% range (NYJ margin)
- -12.2 to +21.8
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingGeno SmithNYJ287 pass yds
- RushingBraelon AllenNYJ104 rush yds
- ReceivingOmar Cooper Jr.NYJ115 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NYJ passing attack#17/32MIA pass defense#31/32
- NYJ run game#28/32MIA run defense#12/32
- MIA passing attack#30/32NYJ pass defense#18/32
- MIA run game#10/32NYJ run defense#5/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
MIAMiami Dolphins
- Malik WillisQB · 5 games170pass yds/g
- Ollie Gordon IIRB · 4 games59rush yds/g
- Caleb DouglasWR · 2 games56.5rec yds/g
- Malik WashingtonWR · 5 games52.4rec yds/g
NYJNew York Jets
- Geno SmithQB · 6 games223pass yds/g
- Breece HallRB · 3 games54.3rush yds/g
- Garrett WilsonWR · 6 games69.7rec yds/g
- Omar Cooper Jr.WR · 2 games66.5rec yds/g