AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 7 · Final

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears, final 24–30

NENENew England Patriots24CHICHIChicago Bears30

Pregame first read

NE run defense has the stronger league profile.

CHI run game #22/32 · NE run defense #16/32 · 171 offense / 117 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
CHI -1.5
Model total
42
80% range (CHI margin)
-13.5 to +20.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • CHI passing attack#17/32NE pass defense#16/32
  • CHI run game#22/32NE run defense#16/32
  • NE passing attack#9/32CHI pass defense#4/32
  • NE run game#14/32CHI run defense#20/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

CHIChicago Bears