2026 Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1 · 1:00 PM ET
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matchup first read
ATL pass defense has the stronger league profile.
TB passing attack #29/32 · ATL pass defense #15/32 · 158 offense / 222 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- TB -1
- Model total
- 45
- 80% range (TB margin)
- -14.1 to +19.9
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- TB passing attack#29/32ATL pass defense#15/32
- TB run game#8/32ATL run defense#13/32
- ATL passing attack#9/32TB pass defense#2/32
- ATL run game#9/32TB run defense#17/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
ATLAtlanta Falcons
- Michael Penix Jr.QB · 5 games231pass yds/g
- Bijan RobinsonRB · 7 games101rush yds/g
- Drake LondonWR · 7 games88rec yds/g
- Jahan DotsonWR · 7 games34.6rec yds/g
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
- Baker MayfieldQB · 4 games170pass yds/g
- Bucky IrvingRB · 7 games79.7rush yds/g
- Emeka EgbukaWR · 6 games40rec yds/g
- Chris Godwin Jr.WR · 7 games34.7rec yds/g