AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 8 · Sun, Nov 1 · 4:25 PM ET

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

NENENew England PatriotsMIAMIAMiami Dolphins

Matchup first read

NE passing attack has the stronger league profile.

NE passing attack #2/32 · MIA pass defense #32/32 · 172 offense / 152 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
NE -5.5
Model total
43
80% range (MIA margin)
-20.3 to +13.7

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIA passing attack#26/32NE pass defense#26/32
  • MIA run game#6/32NE run defense#18/32
  • NE passing attack#2/32MIA pass defense#32/32
  • NE run game#19/32MIA run defense#10/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

MIAMiami Dolphins