AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 9 · Mon, Nov 9 · 8:15 PM ET

Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings

BUFBUFBuffalo BillsMINMINMinnesota Vikings

Matchup first read

BUF run game has the stronger league profile.

BUF run game #1/32 · MIN run defense #15/32 · 148 offense / 120 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIN -3
Model total
46
80% range (MIN margin)
-11.8 to +22.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIN passing attack#27/32BUF pass defense#29/32
  • MIN run game#27/32BUF run defense#19/32
  • BUF passing attack#5/32MIN pass defense#1/32
  • BUF run game#1/32MIN run defense#15/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

BUFBuffalo Bills

MINMinnesota Vikings