AUGRISOpen research

2026 Week 9 · Thu, Nov 5 · 8:15 PM ET

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens

JAXJAXJacksonville JaguarsBALBALBaltimore Ravens

Matchup first read

JAX run defense has the stronger league profile.

BAL run game #24/32 · JAX run defense #1/32 · 151 offense / 109 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
JAX -5
Model total
46.5
80% range (BAL margin)
-20.0 to +14.0

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BAL passing attack#8/32JAX pass defense#18/32
  • BAL run game#24/32JAX run defense#1/32
  • JAX passing attack#6/32BAL pass defense#23/32
  • JAX run game#11/32BAL run defense#3/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2026 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

JAXJacksonville Jaguars

BALBaltimore Ravens